Rosebank vs UK Net Zero: A Ticking Climate Time Bomb?

The UK stands at a critical juncture. Any day now, the government is expected to face a renewed application from Equinor to develop the Rosebank oil field – the largest undeveloped oil field in the UK. This decision represents a pivotal moment for the UK’s climate credibility and its legally binding Net Zero obligations.

The overwhelming consensus from climate scientists and experts is clear: allowing Rosebank to go ahead would be a climate disaster, fundamentally undermining the UK’s commitment to tackling the climate crisis.

 

The Staggering Climate Impact of Rosebank

 

If developed, Rosebank could unleash an estimated 200 million tonnes of CO2 into our atmosphere when the oil and gas are eventually burned. To put this into chilling perspective, that’s more than the entire combined annual CO2 emissions of the 28 lowest-income countries in the world. This isn’t just about emissions from the drilling process; it crucially includes the “Scope 3” emissions – the vast majority of the pollution that occurs when the extracted fossil fuels are consumed. Recent landmark legal rulings in the UK have underscored that these downstream emissions must be fully accounted for in environmental assessments, strengthening the case against projects like Rosebank on climate grounds.

Beyond the carbon footprint, the environmental risks extend to our precious marine ecosystems. The development could see pipelines laid through protected areas of the North Sea, such as the Faroe-Shetland Sponge Belt, threatening fragile deep-sea sponges, ancient clams, and diverse marine life.

 

Rosebank vs. Net Zero: A Direct Conflict

 

The UK has a legally binding target to reach Net Zero emissions by 2050 under the Climate Change Act 2008, supported by rigorous five-year carbon budgets. The approval of Rosebank throws this commitment into severe doubt for several key reasons:

  • Contradiction to 1.5°C Goal: The International Energy Agency (IEA), a highly respected global authority on energy, has unequivocally stated that no new oil and gas fields should be developed if the world is to limit global warming to 1.5°C – a central goal of the Paris Agreement. Rosebank directly defies this scientific imperative.
  • Carbon Budget Busting: Analysis by groups like Uplift indicates that even the production emissions from Rosebank alone would cause the UK’s oil and gas industry to significantly overshoot its emissions reduction targets, which are integral to the national carbon budgets. When “Scope 3” emissions are factored in, this overshoot becomes even more substantial and incompatible with the UK’s trajectory to Net Zero.
  • Undermining Global Leadership: The UK has long prided itself on being a climate leader, enacting pioneering net-zero legislation and hosting COP26. Approving Rosebank would severely damage this international standing, sending a clear message that the UK is not serious about its climate pledges.
  • False Energy Security Argument: While proponents often cite energy security, much of Rosebank’s oil is destined for export, doing little to genuinely lower domestic energy bills or enhance the UK’s own energy independence. True energy security lies in accelerating the transition to abundant, homegrown renewable energy.

 

What Happens Next?

 

Equinor is expected to reapply for consent to develop Rosebank following previous legal challenges that deemed its initial approval unlawful due to the failure to consider Scope 3 emissions. The government’s decision on this new application will be a definitive test of its climate resolve.

 

Join the #StopRosebank National Day of Action!

 

The fight to #StopRosebank is far from over. Past public pressure helped overturn the last government’s approval, demonstrating the power of collective action. Now, we need to show even greater unity.

On Saturday, September 6th, people across the UK will be taking to the streets for a coordinated National Day of Action. From city centres to seaside towns, communities will be marching, rallying, and finding creative ways to send a clear message: Rosebank is a bad deal for us all.

Find an action near you or consider starting your own! Support and resources are available for new organisers. You can also save the date in your calendar and join an info call on Wednesday, August 6th, at 7 PM to learn more about the campaign and how to get involved.

 

Can’t Make It on the Day? You Can Still Make a Difference!

 

Even if you can’t attend a physical action on September 6th, there are many powerful ways you can contribute to the #StopRosebank campaign and help protect our planet:

  • Sign and Share Petitions: Add your voice to the growing public opposition by signing online petitions calling for the government to halt Rosebank and all new oil and gas projects. Once you’ve signed, share them widely with your friends, family, and networks to amplify the message.
  • Contact Your MP/MSP: Your elected representatives need to hear from you. Write a personalised letter or email to your Member of Parliament (MP) or Member of Scottish Parliament (MSP) explaining why stopping Rosebank is crucial for the UK’s climate goals and your future. You can easily find their contact details online.
  • Engage on Social Media: Use the #StopRosebank hashtag across platforms like X (Twitter), Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok. Share campaign updates, news, and your own reasons for opposing the project. Tag relevant accounts like Equinor, the UK government, and climate organizations to maximize reach.
  • Attend Online Briefings: Stay informed and connected by joining online information calls and webinars organised by the campaign. These are excellent opportunities to learn about the latest developments and strategic next steps from the comfort of your home.
  • Support Climate Organisations: Consider donating to or remotely volunteering with climate organizations actively campaigning against Rosebank. Their work in legal challenges, research, and public mobilisation is vital.
  • Educate and Discuss: Share accurate information about the climate implications of Rosebank with those around you. Informed conversations can inspire others to take action and strengthen the collective voice against fossil fuel expansion.

This is our moment to ensure the UK government makes the right call for our climate and our future. Let’s stand together to #StopRosebank.