Chapter 31.
There is a future where prosperity flourishes, justice prevails, and our world thrives in harmony with nature. This is an achievable reality, powered by innovation. As the author William Gibson famously said, “The future is already here—it’s just not evenly distributed.” This rings particularly true in the fight against climate change. The sustainable, regenerative future we seek is not a distant, speculative fantasy; it’s a tangible reality, with countless working examples scattered across the globe. Our central challenge is not one of invention, but rather one of dissemination. In the conversation surrounding climate change and resource depletion, the journey towards net-zero economies is an opportunity to redefine progress and win the war against ignorance—the ignorance that tells us a better way is not possible or is too expensive.
Pioneering work by Amory Lovins and the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) illuminates the power of energy efficiency and integrative design. Their findings are proof that the future is already here, and they reveal that the transition to a sustainable future is feasible, and promises enhanced prosperity and greater resilience for all. The naysayers’ argument rests on an outdated understanding of energy and economics, viewing sustainability as a costly constraint on growth rather than a driver of innovation. They envision net-zero as a forced return to an austere past, failing to grasp Lovins’s reframing of the energy problem. Instead of seeking more supply, Lovins directs attention to the “end-use”—the services we desire, from warm homes to effortless mobility.
His concept of “integrative design” posits that by optimising entire systems, efficiency gains can be multiple times larger and cheaper than conventional methods. This supports the goal of reduced reliance on virgin resource extraction, as less energy demand means less need for fossil fuels and less material demand for power plants. It also aligns with minimising waste and pollution by designing out the need for material and energy input from the start.
This optimistic outlook challenges a narrative in climate discourse that emphasizes inevitable failure. While the challenges are immense, recent shifts in the global energy landscape suggest a more hopeful trajectory. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that global demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2030, with renewables set to rapidly eclipse them. This perspective argues for building upon the successes of environmental movements, rather than lamenting shortcomings. The strategic pushback from incumbent fossil fuel interests further indicates that energy transition has become impactful enough to warrant defensive “politics of delay and deferral.”
The scale of current extraction highlights the urgency of this shift. Global material use has more than tripled in the last fifty years, and humanity is consuming resources equivalent to 1.6 Earths annually. Advanced economies are particularly implicated, using six times more materials per capita. Global primary materials use is projected to almost double from 79 gigatonnes in 2011 to 167 gigatonnes in 2060 under current trends. These escalating figures underscore the unsustainability of the current linear “take-make-dispose” model. The imperative for progressively limiting extraction leading to restoration and regeneration stands in stark contrast. The necessary shift demands not only radical efficiency but also a reimagining of the materials we use. This means moving towards prioritising less use of materials overall, and pursuing alternative, non-extractive materials that can be grown or endlessly recycled.
The economic advantage of “saved energy”—or “negawatts,” as Lovins termed them—emerges as a powerful counterforce. Lovins’s own passive solar home, built with 1983 technologies, saves 99% of heating and 90% of electricity. This was a design choice that eliminated the need for a conventional heating system, demonstrating how initial capital costs can be reduced. This principle extends to industry. Lovins highlights that re-engineering pipe and duct systems to be “fat, short, and straight” can cut friction by 80-90%. This translates into the need for smaller pumps and motors, yielding instant paybacks. Lovins asserts that such an efficiency dividend, if applied everywhere, could eliminate demand equivalent to about half the world’s coal-fired electricity consumption. In 2023, coal was the single largest fuel for global electricity generation. Saving “half the world’s coal-fired electricity” represents an enormous energy saving in absolute terms, vastly overshadowing the entirety of electricity generated from oil, and offering displacement of all fossil fuels. This profitable “energy source” is one that existing forecasts often overlook because it is a design method, not a new technology. The Empire State Building’s retrofit, guided by RMI, further exemplified this, achieving 38% energy savings with a 3-year payback.
A green revolution hinges on transforming our existing infrastructure through retrofitting and cultivating a green future. The built world tells a story of a bygone era; monuments to construction methods that now weigh heavily on our planet. Yet, here there is an extraordinary opportunity—a chance to not just renovate, but to reinvigorate, to breathe new life into old spaces, and in doing so, cultivate a green future and sequester carbon. This future might just be grown. Our global commitment to a Net Zero future demands a radical reimagining of our existing infrastructure. The vast majority of buildings that stand today will still be in use for decades to come. To ignore them is to surrender our climate goals. An astounding 80% of UK buildings that will be occupied in 2050 have already been built, representing the largest construction project of the century. The retrofit market alone is a colossal economic engine, with projections indicating it could exceed £500 billion for domestic housing alone over the next decade.
Millions of homes worldwide lack adequate insulation, bleeding energy and contributing to carbon emissions. In the UK, 90% of solid wall homes remain uninsulated. The first step is to drastically reduce the demand for energy. This is the essence of the “Fabric First” approach. A building with poor insulation is like a leaky bucket; no matter how much energy you pour in, it will constantly escape. By prioritising the building’s envelope, we reduce energy consumption, making any heating or cooling system more efficient. Superior insulation not only cuts energy bills, with internal wall insulation alone potentially saving a semi-detached home up to £405 annually, but also reduces the strain on electricity grids and reduces CO2 emissions by up to 2,100 kg per year—equivalent to driving the average UK car nearly 10,000 miles. It also translates into healthier indoor environments, fewer cold-related illnesses, and a lighter burden on public health services. Failing to properly insulate our building stock will force us to generate far more renewable energy, at a higher cost, to meet the inflated demand of inefficient structures. Investing in robust, long-lasting insulation is thus a strategic economic decision, not just an environmental one.
A key aspect of this shift lies in embracing the power of plant-based materials and the movement towards non-extractive resources. This involves leveraging renewable bio-based alternatives like sustainable timber and mycelium. The construction industry, a major source of global emissions, is increasingly looking to nature for solutions. Plant-based materials offer a sustainable path forward, providing greener alternatives to traditional, energy-intensive options like steel and concrete. They often require less energy to produce and can even store carbon from the atmosphere. Beyond environmental benefits, they open up economic and social opportunities for rural communities, and enhance national security by reducing reliance on imported materials. Among these versatile solutions, Hemp, a plant with a long history in building, offers avenues for modern construction and economic growth. It also boosts strategic security by lessening our dependence on energy-hungry and potentially foreign-sourced materials.
Could a single plant hold the key to future prosperity and ignite a green industrial revolution? Many believe the answer is a resounding yes. This strategy is a blueprint for bringing new life to industrial regions, transforming them into hubs for hemp-based industries. By championing a country’s agricultural need to diversify and existing industrial assets, we can cultivate a sustainable manufacturing economy that directly addresses national needs and global net-zero ambitions. Hempcrete, a mixture of the woody core of the hemp plant (hurds), a lime-based binder, and water, is an insulator. It helps regulate indoor humidity and is considered carbon-negative because industrial hemp absorbs a lot of CO2 as it grows. While not as strong as traditional concrete, its use in major structural parts of buildings is limited. The hempcrete market, expected to reach USD 25.8 billion by 2024, signifies increasing demand and the potential for new industries and job creation in rural economies.
Intriguing research into hemp rebar shows that hemp fibres can be stronger than some types of steel. This “bending and mending strength” could transform structural applications, offering a lighter, rust-proof alternative that requires much less energy to produce than steel. Developing a strong hemp fibre industry for rebar could create new agricultural markets for farmers and specialised manufacturing jobs. Adding to hemp’s versatility is HempWood, a patented product made from compressed hemp fibres and a soy-based adhesive. This innovative material offers a sustainable alternative to traditional wood. HempWood has similar qualities to oak but is 20% harder and grows much faster. Its production is carbon-negative and produces very few harmful volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Its properties make it a promising substitute for traditional hardwoods, reducing reliance on imported timber.
Beyond the benefits of hemp, imagine a world where our homes, offices, and schools are insulated not with synthetic materials, but with materials born from fungi. This is the reality of mycelium-based building materials. Mycelium offers a remedy to pervasive inefficiency. The global market for mycelium in construction is a testament to its disruptive potential, poised for exponential growth. Mycelium panels are insulators and sound absorbers. They char when exposed to fire, forming a protective barrier. These are bio-based, naturally breathable, and contribute to superior indoor air quality. Being lightweight and adaptable, they are easy to transport and install, and can even be grown into bespoke shapes, offering architects and builders design flexibility. The BioKnit team at Newcastle University explores how textiles, biotechnology, and architecture can come together. Their mycelium-based installations transform spaces into living laboratories where fungal mycelium grows through 3D knitted fabric. BioKnit’s approach combines permanent knitted fabric with a new, thick mycelium mixture called mycocrete. This method improves the material’s strength and performance, making it suitable for larger building components. The knitted fabric formwork acts as a reinforcement, preventing sudden, brittle failure.
In addition to hemp and mycelium, timber offers a powerful alternative. Cross-Laminated Timber (CLT) is an engineered wood product that provides structural strength for buildings and infrastructure. As a “carbon sink,” CLT helps fight climate change, and its manufacturing process uses much less energy than that of steel and concrete. Sourced from sustainably managed domestic forests, the growing use of CLT supports local forestry and specialised manufacturing, often in rural areas. CLT’s lightweight nature makes it easier to transport and handle on-site, reducing reliance on transport networks. Its ability to be prefabricated streamlines construction, leading to faster project completion and lower labour costs. This also creates skilled jobs in off-site manufacturing plants.
Innovations in repurposing agricultural waste are also finding new uses. In Brazil, sugarcane waste is being incorporated into road construction. Researchers have shown its effectiveness as a replacement for stone dust in asphalt mixtures. This eco-friendly innovation embeds carbon waste and makes roads more durable. Other diverse examples collectively demonstrate a trend: the repurposing of organic waste streams into building materials, contributing to reduced environmental impact. Corn waste is being transformed into bio-based tiles and interior wall cladding. Rice husks and straw are incorporated into bricks, masonry, and green concrete, offering improved thermal insulation. Coconut fibres are used as reinforcement for cement-soil bricks and serve as thermal insulators.
To tackle the housing crisis and net-zero targets, modular housing combined with next-generation eco-materials offers a viable path. The core innovation lies in sustainable, bio-manufactured materials such as Superwood, mycelium products, and industrial hemp. These materials reduce embodied carbon and foster a circular economy. Concurrently, efficient modular construction shifts building to a controlled factory environment. This method improves cost and speed by mitigating labour shortages and enabling faster project completion. It ensures quality control, leading to high insulation and airtightness vital for reducing operational energy demand. Factory production also minimises waste and offers scalability for mass housing deployment. This synergy between off-site manufacturing and eco-materials reduces carbon, boosts operational efficiency, and integrates circular economy principles, transforming net-zero into an opportunity for prosperity.
These shifts to sustainable materials underpin the economic and social benefits of the green transition. The substantial carbon footprint of steel production stands in sharp contrast to the carbon sequestration offered by domestically grown hemp and timber. Maximising the use of wood in construction, as seen with CLT, has the potential to remove substantial amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere, helping to meet climate goals and supporting sustainable forest management, while boosting national resource independence. The potential for carbon sequestration through embedded biomass in construction is truly substantial. Replacing conventional building materials with alternatives that store CO2 could capture as much as 16.6 to 2.8 gigatons of CO2 annually. This is equivalent to about 50% of global CO2 emissions in 2021, showing a huge opportunity for buildings to become major carbon sinks.
The development of thriving domestic hemp and mass timber industries can create new income streams for farmers and landowners, supporting rural economic diversification and resilience, and reducing reliance on imported construction materials. Government policies and incentives that promote green building materials can accelerate the adoption of these alternatives, driving demand and fostering innovation. This particularly benefits agricultural and forestry sectors and strengthens national strategic security through reliance on local resources.
A truly non-extractive advanced economy necessitates a radical departure from GDP growth as the sole indicator of progress, embracing instead broader measures of well-being, social equity, and ecological health. This also compels an unflinching confrontation with the “extraction of value” inherent in exploitative labour practices, wealth concentration, and the colonial legacies that have historically fuelled advanced economies. Achieving net zero is not merely an environmental task but a reordering of economic and social priorities, requiring a shift in how advanced economies interact with both nature and global communities.
The vision of net-zero, when illuminated by the principles of integrative design and radical efficiency as advanced by Amory Lovins, transforms from an intimidating burden into an irresistible opportunity. His work provides evidence that advanced economies can not only achieve, but profit from, vastly reduced energy and material throughput. The challenge is not one of impossibility, but of overcoming entrenched paradigms, perverse incentives, and the “invisibility” of the solutions themselves—the very definition of the war against ignorance.
Applying Lovins’s “data and design” approach to the context of the UK clarifies this. While arguments for new domestic fossil fuel investment often cite energy security, the reality is that such production enters a global market with little direct impact on UK consumer prices. Authoritative bodies like the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) deem new fields unnecessary for net zero. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) explicit call for “no new oil and gas fields approved for development” in its net-zero pathway underscores this global consensus. Continued investment in fossil fuels presents financial risks, locking the UK into declining industries and exposing it to potential “stranded assets” worth tens of billions for pension savers.
Instead, the paradigm shift offers tangible benefits: the UK’s net-zero economy already supports nearly a million jobs, growing three times faster than the overall economy, alongside enhanced energy security through domestic clean power. Being fiscally responsible and socially responsible are not mutually exclusive, but often mutually reinforcing. This transformative approach demonstrates a pathway to achieving social justice—by addressing issues like exploitative labour and wealth concentration inherent in extractive models—not by crippling the economy, but by fostering a more resilient, equitable, and genuinely prosperous one. By embracing Lovins’s insights, understanding the transformative power of saved energy, and broadening our definition of sustainability to encompass social and historical justice, advanced economies like the UK can confidently pursue a non-extractive, regenerative, and prosperous future, demonstrating that genuine sustainability is the ultimate path to long-term affluence and global equity.
The vision of net-zero, when illuminated by the principles of integrative design and radical efficiency, transforms from an intimidating burden into an irresistible opportunity. His work provides evidence that advanced economies can not only achieve, but profit from, vastly reduced energy and material throughput. The challenge is not one of impossibility, but of overcoming entrenched paradigms, perverse incentives, and the “invisibility” of the solutions themselves—the very definition of the war against ignorance.
By embracing Lovins’s insights, understanding the transformative power of saved energy, and broadening our definition of sustainability to encompass social and historical justice, advanced economies like the UK can confidently pursue a non-extractive, regenerative, and prosperous future. This approach demonstrates that genuine sustainability is the ultimate path to long-term affluence and global equity, proving that the future we want is not something to be created, but something to be distributed.
Next Chapter: Food Abundance: Restoring Ecosystems
Bibliography
Amory Lovins, L. (2011). Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions for the New Energy Era. Rocky Mountain Institute.
BioKnit Project, Newcastle University. (Ongoing research and installations, e.g., Scott, J., et al. “The Pupa: BioKnit at the Newcastle Late Shows,” Newcastle University Press Release, May 14, 2025. Further publications expected from the Hub for Biotechnology in the Built Environment).
Cross-Laminated Timber (CLT) Industry Associations & Research Bodies. (Ongoing publications from organizations like Timber Development UK; research on market growth and new facilities, e.g., Cross Laminated Timber Market Report 2025, ResearchAndMarkets, 2025).
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). (Ongoing. Latest reports include Energy Trends March 2025, Gov.uk).
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2021). Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. IEA Publications. (Referencing also ongoing analysis, e.g., IEA Report: 2025 Clean Energy Investment to Reach US$2.2tn, IEA, June 2025).
Mycelium Materials. (Ongoing research from various universities and startups; recent work includes studies on thermal, acoustic, and fire properties, and new production methods for mycelium composites, e.g., Elsacker, A., et al., “Towards a methodology for mycelium-based materials characterization.” Journal of Building Engineering, 2020. Further research and commercial development by Ecovative Design, MycoWorks, and academic institutions continue into 2025).
Research on Bio-asphalt from Sugarcane Waste: (Ongoing studies from State University of Maringá (UEM) in Brazil, e.g., Hipólito, V. M., et al., “Brazil is Turning Sugarcane Waste into Stronger and Greener Asphalt,” Highways Today, June 4, 2025, referencing underlying research in civil engineering or materials science journals).
Research on Corn Cob Cores, Rice Husks, and Coconut Fibres in Construction: (Various academic papers and reports continue to emerge in journals of sustainable materials, civil engineering, and agricultural waste management. Recent examples include research on corn cob ash in cementitious composites, e.g., Influence of corn cob ash additive on the structure and properties of cement concrete, ResearchGate, 2025; and market reports on rice husk ash and coconut fiber use in construction, e.g., Rice Husk Ash Market Size, Growth Forecast 2025-2037, Research Nester, 2025).
Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI). (Ongoing research and reports, e.g., “How one carbon market is helping industry fight climate change,” E&E News by POLITICO, July 7, 2025, referencing recent RMI reports).
Szeman, I., & Wenzel, J. (Eds.). (2025). Power Shift: Keywords for a New Politics of Energy. West Virginia University Press.
The World Bank. (Ongoing. For municipal solid waste, refer to the latest Global Waste Management Outlook 2024, published jointly with UNEP and ISWA, updating previous What a Waste 2.0 reports).
UK Climate Change Committee (CCC). (Ongoing. Latest reports include Progress in reducing emissions 2025 Report to Parliament, Climate Change Committee, June 2025, updating previous annual progress reports).
UK Green Building Council (UKGBC). (Ongoing. Referencing their current work on carbon roadmaps and sustainable construction practices. The Whole Life Carbon Roadmap for the UK Built Environment (2021) remains a foundational document, with ongoing updates and supporting publications).
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) & International Resource Panel. (Ongoing. Referencing their latest Global Resources Outlook 2024, UNEP, March 2025).